Gold Surges Over 30% in GBP In 2016 After Brexit
Gold Surges Over 30% in GBP In 2016 After Brexit
– Gold gains in USD, GBP, EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD, JPY
– Gold gains in CNY, INR & most emerging market currencies
– Gold surges 31.5% in British pounds after Brexit shock
– Gold acted as hedge and safe haven in 2016 … for those who need safe haven
– Further signs of market having bottomed and bodes well for 2017
– What drivers will gold respond to in 2017?
– EU elections and contagion risk, Geo-politics, terrorism, war and cyber war
– Outlook for gold good during Trump Presidency (2017 to 2020)
Gold was the best performing currency in 2016, rising as it did in all major currencies. It again performed the function as a hedge against currency devaluation and this was seen particularly in sterling terms with gold rising 31.5% in British pounds after the Brexit shock.
gold-chart-2016Gold in USD in 2016
Gold prices closed 2016 at USD 1,159.10, EUR 1,098.36 and GBP 942.58 per ounce.
Gold prices closed 2015 at USD 1,062.25, EUR 974.32 and GBP 716.36 per ounce.
(Gold AM fixes on December 30th 2016 and December 31st 2015 respectively)
UK investors and savers who had an allocation to gold protected their wealth from the Brexit debacle and the sharp falls in sterling seen in its aftermath. Gold rose over £220 per ounce and acted as a classic safe haven for investors exposed to the pound, and markets and assets denominated in British pounds.
Gold in GBP in 2016
The gains in euro terms were more modest but robust. The gains seen are likely due to the continuing massive ECB money printing and debt monetisation programme and heightened risk of contagion in the Eurozone.
Brexit and the elections in France, Germany and Holland will support gold in euro terms in 2017 and there is the possibility of sharp gains in euro terms should the Eurozone debt crisis return.
Gold in EUR in 2016
What drivers will gold respond to in 2017?
Italian, Greek, Irish, Spanish and other banks and risk of bail-ins
Dutch, German, French elections … Eurozone contagion
Continuing ultra loose monetary policies by Fed, BOE, BOJ and especially ECB
Trump policies and tweets …
Geo-politics, cyber war & terrorism, conventional war & terrorism
President Trump has already shown himself as a man who likes to tweet and knows the power of the short sound bite and the medium that is Twitter. His skill in this regard was one of the factors which helped him become President.
However, this asset may become a liability for him and for markets when he becomes President. The art of diplomacy will become more important and 140 characters of unfiltered Trump is likely to create tensions with America’s largest trading partners such as China. This has been seen with China recently and his accusation that China “stole” the U.S. drone on Twitter.
It has already impacted markets as seen when he tweeted about Boeing and Boeing shares fell sharply.
Should he continue in this vein, it could lead to jitters in markets and a safe haven bid for gold in the event of ‘inflammatory’, tension creating and damaging tweets. His capacity to comment without fully understanding all the facts may be his ‘Achilles heal’ in this regard.
Overnight Trump’s tweet regarding Toyota saw the Japanese car maker lose $1.2 billion in value in five minutes. Shares plummeted after the president-elect vowed in a tweet to stop the car manufacturer from moving abroad.
Stocks, bonds and property markets have performed very well in recent years. However, there gains are artificial and are based on near zero percent interest rate policies and from being bloated by monetary stimulus on a scale that the world has never seen before.
These bubble like conditions look increasingly vulnerable and will likely burst – the question is when rather than if.
Indeed, the turmoil that we have seen on international markets in 2016 appears a foretaste of a very volatile 2017. We continue to see conditions akin to those seen in 2007 and 2008. Many leading experts have echoed these concerns.
Geopolitical risk intensified in 2016 with Brexit, the Italian referendum and of course the election of Trump. The risk of terrorism and war remain ever present and gold will continue to act as an important hedge against geopolitical risk.
The risk of contagion in the EU – both political and financial and monetary now looms large. Today there is the added risk of bail-ins and deposit confiscation which will be see savings and capital confiscated from savers and companies in the next financial crisis.
It is worth remembering – as many seem to have forgotten – that gold was one of the few assets to rise in the financial crash of 2008 and in the debt crisis in the 2007 to 2012 period. It has under performed since as stocks and bonds roared to artificially induced record highs.
The strong performance of gold in all currencies including the very strong dollar in 2016 bodes well for 2017.
It is due a period of out performance and we believe it will outperform other assets in the coming Trump Presidency years from 2017 to 2020.
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER