Gold and silver market morning: Concocted air of stability

Gold and silver prices slipped overnight in Asia but began to pick up again in trading in Europe ahead of New York opening.

Author: Julian Phillips
Posted: Monday , 31 Oct 2011

BENONI – Asia took the gold price down $30 overnight ahead of London’s opening as Japan moved to curb the strength in the yen which gave a boost to the dollar. The gold price stood at $1,714 at that point. During London’s morning it rose slightly until it Fixed at $1,718.00 and in the euro at €1,227.231 while the euro stood at €1: $1.40. Ahead of the opening of New York, the gold price rose to $1,721.10 while the euro climbed slightly though $1.40 to trade at €1: $1.4014 leaving gold in the euro at €1,228.31.

The silver price in Asia stood at $34.31 before London opened, following gold down. Thereafter it remained steady and stood at $34.34, ahead of New York’s opening.

Typically Asia will not chase exuberant prices and will wait for a pullback closer to where it has come from. Traders will always push prices as far as they can, which is why it rose to $1,743 before a pullback. But this is ‘normal’ market movements.

As M. Trichet, departing head of the E.C.B. said last week, the Eurozone crisis is not over. But it is now on the backburner until more bad news bursts upon us. No, its place is to be taken by the U.S. deficit reduction, which is turning back into a political game of brinkmanship.

We would ask you to have a look at the gold price in the euro. It has moved in a very small trading range during the period after the announcement of the ‘solution’ to the Eurozone crisis. Its swing in the U.S. dollar has reflected the rise of the euro against the U.S. dollar. This tells us that the euro gold price is closer to the real thing and reflecting the moves of currencies, not those moves of its own. It’s so easy to get the wrong picture if one is looking from the wrong perspective. But we have to be careful, because the U.S. dollar/euro exchange rate moves have been within a tight band too. Is this a coincidence? It certainly gives us an air of stability that may well be concocted? The moves are not a reflection of the size of the drama surrounding the Eurozone crisis.

Let’s be clear on one point, the governments of the Eurozone and the U.S. and their central banks are finding it extremely difficult to cope with the mix of politics and financial desperation. Their task is to try to preserve the value of their currencies on the international stage. This conflicts with the internal economic and financial pressures. Which is more important, the internal political and economic perceptions or the international ones. At the end of the day it is the internal perception which is treated as more important at the expense of external ones. This attacks the value of currencies! But today, perceptions are realities, or so we are told. We, like the gold price, beg to differ.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – and

Global Gold Price (1 ounce)

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