LEONID IVASHOV: WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM ERDOGAN?

LEONID IVASHOV: WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM ERDOGAN?

10 10 2016

Ankara is on the crossroads of Western and Eastern ways. If the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan will make the final right choice in favor of cooperation with Russia, the middle East, the formation of new axis “Moscow – Tehran – Ankara”. The prospects for Russian-Turkish relations, said Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov in the program of Andrey Afanasyev “Russian response”.

Authoritarianism – East chance for peace

Andrey Afanasyev: Leonid G., based on the current situation in the middle East, that Turkey sent troops into Iraq that we can and should do as realists? What are the benefits at the international level we can get?

Leonid Ivashov: the main benefit is the restoration of statehood and stability in the middle East. And this is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin just said at the anniversary session of the UN General Assembly. Because today without the restoration of a clear and rigid state, lead to the stability of the middle East will not succeed.

Today it is possible to remember and Saddam Hussein, and Muammar Qaddafi, and Hafez al-Assad, and President Saleh in Yemen. Yes, they were accused of authoritarian methods, but another way to keep these diverse political and religious forces was impossible. What to do today? We see that in the process of Syrian settlement, even if we imagine that the Americans wanted to stabilize and preserve the Assad regime, and the Turks and the Europeans, and Iran – if we all wish to take it the principles of truce, then a political settlement, we do not agree. Because everyone has their own allies, their own wards.

A. A.: Yes, and tasks are directly opposite.

L. I.: Yes, but that’s how Americans work with the Kurds, the same Syrian Kurds are close to us. The Turks are categorically against the Kurds. At the same time, if you take Iraq, Talabani, his Kurdish tribes, its political power – they are closer to us and closer to Iran and Syria. But Barzani, in fact, became so Pro-Turkish party in the war. Plus there are so many different undercurrents.

Erdogan and the two vectors of Turkey

A. A.: the Activities of secret services all over the world there too concentrated.

L. I.: Yes, and therefore about the middle East need only regret. But let’s talk about Turkey. The political situation and political strategy in Turkey are completely undefined. About the situation say “indefinite”, but a political strategy Erdogan entangled in their intricacies.

I remember, back in 1990-e years has been a rapprochement, a rapprochement between Syria, Turkey and Iran on the Kurdish issue. And was there even some kind of Alliance. Not just to the Kurds to rein in, but in order to solve the Kurdish problem. Especially, the foreign Ministers of these three countries have thoroughly discussed, the leaders met. And then suddenly they all went off the rails. Therefore, today Turkey is not identified with its cultural and civilizational identity. Which civilization it belongs to: whether to the civilizations of the East, Islamic civilization, or to the West. She has two vectors.
AA: Turkey second largest army in NATO.

L. I.: Yes, Yes, Yes. But Turkey called NATO is not just. The fact that in Europe, NATO and the Soviet Union was no one to fight. No one in the first tier in ground operations, ground operations, does not want to fight. And the Turks have taken it as cannon fodder, as land force. So today, this Turkish fault to be with the East or with the West.

On the one hand, Erdogan sees as powerfully rises in the East, led by China, but here in Russia. And dynamics of development, and the increasing political status, and so on. But on the other hand, he was afraid to quarrel with the United States. He saw what he was worth an attempt after our downed aircraft su-24.
A. A.: there was an unsuccessful coup attempt.

L. I.: Yes, this attempt followed when Erdogan and his entourage began to declare that it is necessary with Russia to make peace. Should make peace with Putin. And who is there to give a command? According to the investigating authorities, gülen is almost personally gave the Turkish pilot to shoot down our aircraft.

A. A.: I would say that it could be, given the fact that Fethullah Gulen himself is now in Pennsylvania.

L. I.: Yes, Yes, Yes. And of course, he as a politician, as ambiguous figure, not only is under such dense control of the FBI and the CIA, but, in fact, is one of the tools used by the US intelligence. So if gülen was organizing a coup, then at least these services – and the FBI, and the CIA, and the NSA all knew. And most likely Gulen is a tool with which the Americans put pressure on Erdogan and the coup they stood. Erdogan understands this.But to decide until may, wants to completely sever its relations with Europe, with the United States.

AA: do you think that he will have to make the final choice?

L. I.: I’ll have to Have. Or just eliminate from the political arena, or he’ll have to do something. Because the policy, announced by the former Minister of foreign Affairs Davutoglu’s zero problems on the borders with neighbours, has turned 180 degrees. The Turks today are no neighbors with whom there would be no problems. And this policy would be suicidal for Turkey. And we’ll see what comes and attacks.

Photo: Burhan Ozbilici/AP/TASS

New geopolitical triangle

AA: the Only salvation, as many experts say, is Russia. Is there any alternative to Turkey, some kind of Alliance that will get her out of this situation?

L. I.: Russia as an alternative to the West – you know, Turkey is today interesting, to weaken the southern flank of NATO. Geopolitically and there may be formed a triangle like this: “Moscow – Tehran – Ankara”. That would be interesting for the stabilization of the situation in the middle East, and to some extent, to deter the West, the same organization, NATO. In this regard, it is interesting. And I believe there will once come a new team. Even if Erdogan will change team, and they are aware of the dramatic situation for the Turks, this triangle can seriously earn.

AA: That Erdogan might give Russia now? What does he want?

L. I.: Russia it has much to offer, if he turns from the West, turn away from its aggressive policy and, together with Russia, with Iran, with Egypt, Iraq and Syria will begin to restore the statehood of the greater Middle East. He should understand that there is a strong government like Saddam Hussein. Yeah, he’s not especially fond of Turkey, but he kept order, and he suppressed the terrorism. No aggressive military aggression against Turkey.

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